Economists and announcing positive news: ur doin’ it wrong


I’ve been reading a lot lately about how economists are predicting an uptick in the world economy, just because of a couple key indicators.   First, there were the durable goods upticks in the United States.

Orders placed with U.S. factories rose in February for the first time in seven months, reflecting a rebound in demand for construction machinery, computers and air conditioning equipment that signals the worst of the manufacturing slump has passed.

It definitely has not.  Just because one indicator is pointing upward, doesn’t mean that the rest of them will follow, particularly given the hefty deficit spending Obama is about to institute.   Additionally, there was the news from MIT:

Nearly six months after a panel of five MIT faculty experts in economics and business warned that the financial crisis would get much worse, the same group re-convened and identified a few bright spots on the economic horizon.

Despite these two spots, the recent analysis I’ve been doing on world trade for our first quarter forecast shows that we still have a long way to go.  It’s just frustrating that the media will pick up on any signs of positivity and run with it to reflect a complete turnaround.  Although, with consumer confidence as a kind of chicken-and-the-egg story, maybe that’s exactly what we need to jumpstart the economy.